Analyzing Conference USA Tournament contenders, pretenders and dark horses
The 2016 Conference USA men's basketball tournament tips off this week in Birmingham, Alabama, with a familiar theme — parity.
Yes, UAB won the regular season crown by three games and the Blazers do have a comfortable home court to play on, but the league, respite having woeful RPI numbers the entire year, has shown a propensity for balance among the top five or six teams.
Below is a look at the contenders, a few dark horses and the pretenders for the C-USA tournament. Teams are listed as how I would personally rank them. The actual corresponding seeds are next to each team.
Note: Southern Miss, which finished tied for second-to-last place at 5-13, is ineligible for postseason tournaments.
CONTENDERS
No. 1 UAB
Record: 26-5, 16-2
Overview: UAB might as well be in a league of its own due to the home-court advantage. The Blazers won't play in their home arena at Bartow, but Legacy Arena is just a short drive away. A majority of the crowd will don UAB colors just like last year, except UAB won't be flying under the radar. The Blazers have handled the target on their back quite well for the entire season, but will that change in a tournament setting when possessions get tight?
Best win: Old Dominion
Worst loss: Western Kentucky
No. 2 Middle Tennessee
Record: 21-9, 13-5
Overview: Middle Tennessee isn't the flashiest of squads, but the Blue Raiders proved in 2015 they are more than capable of making a run to the finals. The road sets up well for MTSU, which can avoid UAB until the championship for a rematch of last year's title game. Giddy Potts appears to be back healthy after missing the last three games with injury. He's shooting almost 50 percent from the 3-point line this season, which means MTSU is never out of a game with him firing from beyond the arc.
Best win: Belmont
Worst loss: Western Kentucky
No. 3 Marshall
Record: 16-15, 12-6
Overview: Marshall can shoot its way past any team in this field. The question is if the defense can stop anyone. The Herd don't have a deep bench, so relying solely on offensive efficiency may be hard to ask for a team that finished the regular season as the biggest surprise in the league. Marshall had just four wins before January and went on a sizzling run that catapulted the Herd near the top of the standings. The season ended with a mini-losing skid of three games but those came to UAB, Middle Tennessee and Tech.
Best win: Middle Tennessee
Worst loss: Charlotte
No. 4 Louisiana Tech
Record: 23-8, 12-6
Overview: Sans the leadership of Speedy Smith, we can probably copy and paste last year's reasoning here. Not much has changed with the Bulldogs in terms of being a contender. Yes, Tech was the favorite last year, but the Bulldogs still struggle in tournament-style settings. Does that change this year? The defense has been lacking of late and will need to improve in order to win three straight games. Alex Hamilton is playing the best basketball of his career, but how far can that carry the Bulldogs?
Best win: Ohio State
Worst loss: Florida Atlantic
DARK HORSES
No. 6 UTEP
Record: 18-13, 10-8
Overview: UTEP is the hardest team in this field to figure out. Just when everyone thought the Miners were rolling with six straight wins, they go on the road and are swept by ODU and Charlotte. Still, UTEP is dangerous after switching to a four-guard lineup recently. Lee Moore (15 points per game) leads the trio of four guards who can take a game over in a split second.
Best win: Louisiana Tech
Worst loss: Southern Miss
No. 8 Western Kentucky
Record: 16-15, 8-10
Overview: Western Kentucky holds the title of the old cliche of "peaking at the right time." Forget the record for this one because WKU is playing solid, competitive basketball despite just holding a 6-6 mark in the last 12 games. However, WKU closed out the regular season with four wins in five games against the likes of Charlotte, Middle Tennessee and Louisiana Tech and almost upended UAB in a four-point loss. Justin Johnson (15 points per game and 7.7 rebounds per game) is one of most improved players in the league, so don't be surprised if WKU is left standing Saturday.
Best win: UAB
Worst loss: Drake
PRETENDERS
No. 5 Old Dominion
Record: 19-12, 12-6
Overview: Old Dominion certainly has the makeup of a championship-caliber team. The Monarchs have a star in Trey Freeman who has the veteran savvy to help carry the team and a style of play that can create matchup problems for teams like Louisiana Tech, a possible quarterfinal opponent. However, we've seen this before when ODU struggles away from its home court. ODU had a quick exit last year and is 7-8 this year in neutral or road games.
Best win: Louisiana Tech
Worst loss: Southern Miss
No. 7 Charlotte
Record: 13-18, 9-9
NCAA RPI: 186
Overview: Outside of Western Kentucky, Charlotte may be the most intriguing team in the field in terms of talent. The 49ers have the ability to score the basketball, but they don't play defense well, which is an issue in a tournament setting. Offense can only take teams so far.
Best win: Marshall
Worst loss: Florida Atlantic
No. 11 Florida International
Record: 13-18, 7-11
Overview: FIU surprised everyone with a hot start before quickly fading into the South Florida Sunset. The Panthers are 3-9 in their last 12 games and have just two wins since late January. Rim protecter Adrian Diaz and three 15-point scorers (Diaz, Daviyon Draper and Donte McGill) provide enough firepower, but a second-round game with UTEP isn't exactly the best start to make a run.
Best win: Louisiana Tech
Worst loss: Southern Miss
THE BOTTOM TIER
No. 9 North Texas
Record: 12-19, 7-11
Overview: North Texas boasts a large front-court that isn't afraid to get down and dirty in the post to defend and rebound. The offense can be anemic at times (UNT scored 47 points in a loss to ODU), but then there are games like against Tech and Marshall when the Mean Green get hot and score in the 80s to pull off upsets. UNT is a hard team to figure out.
No. 10 Rice
Record: 12-19, 7-11
Overview: Rice has Marcus Evans, who is capable of scoring 30 points on any given night. The problem is Rice doesn't get enough supporting cast help to consistently win. Evans could win Rice a game or two but it's unlikely the Owls can make a run.
No. 12 Florida Atlantic
Record: 7-24, 5-13
Overview: FAU beat Tech earlier this year and has the makeup as a potential giant killer. Despite a record that burns the eyes, the Owls knocked off Texas-San Antonio in Tuesday's opening round and could give Old Dominion some trouble in the second round. The odds of that happening seen slim to none, though.