ON THE SIDELINES

6 for '16: Most favorable schedules in Conference USA

Sean Isabella
sisabella@thenewsstar.com
UTEP is looking to reach a bowl game like it did in 2014 with a favorable schedule this season.

Conference USA Football Media Days will be held next weekend in Dallas, a sign that the college football season is rapidly approaching.

From now until July 25, when the C-USA West Division teams kick things off Monday afternoon, The News-Star is starting a blog series titled "6 for '16" to discuss a six-pack of relevant topics in C-USA as it pertains to the 2016 season.

Wednesday's topic centers around the six most favorable schedules in Conference USA. League games carried the most weight for this analysis but overall schedules, including nonconference games, and opponents' records from 2015 were factored in. I'm using the word most favorable because easy is a misnomer. Teams change on an annual basis, which is why it's always increasingly difficult to project how teams will fare.

After UTEP and Southern Miss, the drop off from favorable schedule to challenging schedule is quite sharp.

6 for '16 series:

1. UTEP

Home games: New Mexico State; Army; Southern Miss; FIU; Old Dominion; Houston Baptist; North Texas
Road games: Texas; Louisiana Tech; UTSA; FAU; Rice
Games against 2015 bowl teams: 2
Record for opponents: 52-94 (.356)
Record of C-USA opponents: 40-59 (.404)
Overview: UTEP not only has the most favorable but in league, but the Miners may have one of least challenging in the country. UTEP ranks 128 out of 128 teams in opponents' winning percentage from 2015. Outside of Texas, the nonconference doesn't offer much, and UTEP caught a major break by avoiding Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee and Marshall in the East. For this reason along, UTEP could make a move up the standings if it can stay healthy.

2. Southern Miss

Home games: Savannah State; Troy; Rice; Marshall; Charlotte; Louisiana Tech
Road games: Kentucky; UTEP; UTSA; LSU; Old Dominion; North Texas
Games against 2015 bowl teams: 3
Record for opponents: 59-85 (.410)
Record of C-USA opponents: 40-58 (.408)
Overview: How does is a schedule with two Southeastern Conference teams considered one of the more favorable ones? Easy. All of Southern Miss' tougher league games come at home, and the Golden Eagles fared well with both Old Dominion and Charlotte on the schedule instead of Western Kentucky or Middle Tennessee. Marshall and Louisiana Tech are the marquee games, although both are played in Hattiesburg. USM should have a nice path back to the C-USA title game if it plays up to potential.

3. UTSA

Home games: Alabama State; Arizona State; Southern Miss; UTEP; North Texas; Charlotte
Road games: Colorado State; Old Dominion; Rice; Middle Tennessee; Louisiana Tech; Texas A&M
Games against 2015 bowl teams: 6
Record for opponents: 70-80 (.467)
Record for C-USA opponents: 43-57 (.430)
Overview: Any team that gets Charlotte as a potential freebie belongs on this list. That's about where the "favorable" part of the schedule starts and stops. UTSA will likely be underdogs in all six of its road games, but the Roadrunners have four winnable games at home, which includes the two worst teams in the league from last year.

4. Old Dominion

Home games: Hampton; UTSA; UMass; Marshall; Southern Miss; FIU
Road games: Appalachian State; North Carolina State; Charlotte; Western Kentucky; UTEP; FAU
Games against 2015 bowl teams: 5
Record for opponents: 76-74 (.507)
Record for C-USA opponents: 48-48 (.500)
Overview: Statistically, Old Dominion faces the fifth-toughest schedule (not fifth easiest) in terms of opponents' winning percentage from 2015. That wasn't enough to keep the program off this list. Due to its regional ties in a big market, Old Dominion was once again able to schedule solid, yet beatable opponents in the nonconference. Most schools at the Group of Five level can't say that. ODU, like any team in the East, has to deal with WKU and Marshall, but the Monarchs get relief from not having to play Middle Tennessee and a tussle with Southern Miss comes at home.

5: Charlotte

Home games: Elon; Eastern Michigan; Old Dominion; FIU; Rice; Middle Tennessee
Road games: Louisville; Temple; FAU; Marshall; Southern Miss; UTSA
Games against 2015 bowl teams: 5
Record for opponents: 65-85 (.433)
Record for C-USA opponents: 48-48 (.500)
Overview: This is another situation where the numbers say Charlotte is tied for third in C-USA strength of schedule just by looking at opponents' win percentage from 2015. Charlotte will likely hold the label as the worst team in C-USA once again in 2016, as the newly-formed team is slowly building its way up. Charlotte does play Southern Miss and Marshall on the road, two games that should be blowouts, but the 49ers get a breather by avoiding Western Kentucky in its own division.

T6. Rice

Home games: Baylor; North Texas; UTSA; Prairie View A&M; FAU; UTEP
Road games: Western Kentucky: Army; Southern Miss; Louisiana Tech; Charlotte; Stanford
Games against 2015 bowl teams: 5
Record for opponents: 76-74 (.507)
Record of C-USA opponents: 44-57 (.4356)
Overview: Overall, Rice's schedule doesn't look nearly as daunting as it may have last year due to Baylor's free fall from the college football landscape with an offseason scandal. But that's not why Rice lands here. The Owls have a favorable home slate in league play that could easily generate five wins and go a long way in getting back to bowl eligibility. The road schedules doesn't look like any fun with games at WKU, Southern Miss and Louisiana Tech. RIce also travels to Standford for a late November clash.

T6. Marshall

Home games: Morgan State; Akron; Louisville; FAU; Charlotte; Middle Tennessee; Western Kentucky
Road games: Pittsburgh; North Texas; Southern Miss; Old Dominion; FIU
Games against 2015 bowl teams: 6
Record for opponents: 72-78 (.480)
Record for C-USA opponents: Marshall 44-57 (.4356) 
Overview: Marshall lands somewhere in the middle of toughest schedules and most favorable schedules in the league. The Herd barely missed out on Tuesday's list simply due to how the cards fell with home/road splits. As a whole, Marshall, which hasn't always been known for scheduling tough nonconference games in the past few years, has quite a few challenging games. Quietly, this may be the toughest nonconference schedule in the league since Pittsburgh, Akron and Louisville all went to bowl games in 2015. Marshall gets two of them at home, though. WKU and MTSU are also at home to help soften the blow.

League Strength of Schedule

Here is the complete list of C-USA teams ranked first to last based on league strength of schedule in 2016. The math here is simple: Take the combined records from each team's eight opponents from 2015 to get a winning percentage.

  1. North Texas (.582)
  2. Florida Atlantic (.510)
  3. Florida International (.500)
  4. Charlotte 50-50 (.500)
  5. Middle Tennessee (.470)
  6. Old Dominion (.470)
  7. Louisiana Tech (.465)
  8. Western Kentucky (.464)
  9. Marshall (.4356) 
  10. Rice (.4356)
  11. UTSA (.430)
  12. Southern Miss (.408)
  13. UTEP 40-59 (.404)