Leaders, NOAA talk about future flood conditions

Local leaders met with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration leaders Tuesday to discuss what went wrong with the March 2016 weather forecast before massive flooding hit northeastern Louisiana and what they can do to mitigate future damages.

Michael Berry, senior meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Shreveport, talked about the computer models that were generated in the days ahead of the rain event. The models showed less rain than fell, and meteorologists knew the system would stall at some point. Five days ahead of the event, it looked like it would stall in northwestern Louisiana. That area did receive the most rain in the first 24 hours, but the system dumped the total projected amount of rain in the first day. After that, the NWS changed its message to emergency planners.

One of the problems, Berry said, is that the computer models do not look at some mitigating factors that create extreme weather events. The scientists did not repeat exactly what the models projected. They added to the forecast, just not enough, Cynthia Palmer, the science and operation officer for the NWS Shreveport said. Berry said part of the sustained problems was that where the water dropped caused backwater flooding. He showed maps with dramatic changes in water caused by the rain event.

Tracy Hilburn, maintenance superintendent for the Tensas Basin Levee District, said the rain could have fallen in a worse location that would have topped the banks of the Ouachita River. "Bad as it was, we were lucky," he said.

Hilburn said Monroe is built like a bowl, like a mini-New Orleans, once the water was in, there was nowhere for it to go.

Berry said in the future, they plan to let leaders know the potential worst-case scenario so communities can prepare accordingly.

Follow Bonnie Bolden on Twitter @Bonnie_Bolden_ and on Facebook at http://on.fb.me/1RtsEEP.