ON THE SIDELINES

Bubble watch: Latest projections have Tech in NCAA Tournament

Sean Isabella
sisabella@thenewsstar.com
Shortstop Dalton Skelton throws the ball in Louisiana Tech's game Tuesday at UL Lafayette.

A red-hot 15-2 start to the season had Louisiana Tech looking like a lock to make the NCAA Tournament in consecutive seasons only for the Bulldogs to experience a deep slump and 1-7 record to open Conference USA.

Now, Tech is back on the right side of the projections with two weekends left in the regular season.

Baseball America and D1baseball.com have the Bulldogs in the 64-team field as an at-large selection, according to the latest projections released Wednesday.

Tech (32-16, 13-11) is listed by Baseball America as a 3-seed in the Starkville Regional (Mississippi State), while D1baseball has Tech as a 3-seed in the Fort Worth Regional (TCU). Earlier this week, WarrenNolan.com put Tech as a 3-seed in the Lubbock Regional (Texas Tech).

Both Baseball America and WarrenNolan.com have Tech in the last four teams in, meaning the Bulldogs have little margin for error during the final six games against Marshall and at Middle Tennessee.

Tech's RPI sits at No. 39, according to WarrenNolan.com. It was at 61 just four weeks ago when Tech slumped, but it has steadily moved up during a string of 15 wins in the last 21 games and five consecutive series wins.

A year ago, Tech received a 3-seed in the Starkville Regional thanks to an RPI of 31 along with nine wins over ranked teams and a 10-5 mark against the RPI Top-50.

By comparison, Tech has three wins this year over ranked teams and a 5-6 mark against the RPI Top-50. In Tech's favor is a No. 14 nonconference RPI. The Bulldogs beat Mississippi State, Arkansas, McNeese State and UL Lafayette.

The difference between this year and last are the opponents in May. Tech enjoyed a huge RPI boost in 2016 thanks to a sweep of Rice, a win at Southern Miss and a midweek sweep of Northwestern State.

For example, a year ago Wednesday (May 10, 2016), Tech's RPI was 69. It moved to 48 in a matter of days following wins against NSU and USM. The final push came with the Rice sweep, as the RPI moved from 47 up to 36.

Marshall (103) and MTSU (114) don't offer much upside in the final two weekends. That places a high priority on a good showing in the C-USA tournament. Tech wrapped up its at-large bid last year with wins over Florida Atlantic and Rice.

If the RPI continues to hover in the high 30s or low 40s with two series wins to end the regular season, a few wins in the C-USA tournament may be all the Bulldogs need to shore up another regional trip and the programs first back-to-back trip since 1986 and 1987.

PROJECTIONS

WarrenNolan.com

Lubbock Regional

1. Texas Tech
2. Arizona
3. Louisiana Tech
4. New Mexico State

Baseball America

Starkville Regional

1. Mississippi State
2. Texas
3. Louisiana Tech
4. Oral Roberts

D1baseball.com

Fort Worth Regional

1. TCU
2. Arkansas
3. Louisiana Tech
4. Oral Roberts